Biotech and Nanotech will flop

Probability: 70%

Timeline: 25 years

I'm not sure why, but I think both of these technologies will fail to deliver to the degree of their hype. At least not in the next quarter century.

No doubt that they've already produced some interesting advancements, but I think future developments in these fields will be slow and fairly boring.

These fields in 2010 remind  me of space technology of the 1960s.

Sure, we got some pretty neat stuff out of the race to the space, but certainly no flying cars, or subdivisions on the moon.

I don't think either of these technologies will produce the miracles that some suggest.

Hopefully some eager scientists will prove me wrong!

People will get bored of Apple gadgets

Probability: 90%

Timeline: 5 years

Apple products are beautifully designed, with highly functional user interfaces.

But I'm not sure they really deserve the amount of attention they get.

It seems to me that the marketing has a lot more to do with their popularity than the products themselves.

Sure, every gadget Apple releases these days is a "must have" from day 1, but will they stand the test of time?

I've used iPods, iPhones and even an iPad here and there. I thought they were nice to use, but wasn't really "blown away" by them.

I suspect in 5 years there will be other companies with shiny new fad products capturing people's attention and money.

Apple's stuff will be old, clunky, and gathering dust in a drawer somewhere.

Obesity gets even worse

Probability: 95%

Timeline: Now for the next decade

This is already a massive problem, and there are lots of campaigns to reduce obesity, but the problem just keeps getting worse.

If you don't believe me, just have a look at this scary data from "ground zero" of the epidemic, the United States: http://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/trends.html

Here are some predictions from better-educated sources than myself: http://www.heartforum.org.uk/Publications_NHFreports_ObesityTrends.aspx

Notice that the correlation between extra weight and many diseases has been established for decades now.

Obesity is spreading around the world like a plague.

No wonder. With cheap, fatty, salty, sugary food being shoved in our faces from all angles, it is getting more and more difficult to eat properly.

The only way to stop this trend is to change the economics. Instead of promoting junk food, we need to make healthy food cheaper, and unhealthy food more expensive.

No more bananas

Probability: 70%

Timeline: 25 years

I love bananas. They are the perfect food.

Sweet and delicious, they have natural packaging and a visual ripeness indicator.

I'm eating as many bananas as I can get my hands on, because they're cheap and plentiful.

The problem is that I don't think they will be for much longer.

I suspect that a combination of political problems, environmental pressures, and transportation cost increases will make these treats more difficult to obtain in the future.

Sea level rise has big effects

Probability: 90%

Timeline: 25 years

This one seems to be a no-brainer. Just quickly reading the Wikipedia entry about sea level rise show this to be very likely.

The real questions to consider at this point are:

1. How fast will it happen?
2. What areas will be impacted the most?

Certainly low-lying island nations are most at risk. In fact, large parts of Tuvalu have already been evacuated and the entire country may eventually have to be abandoned!

How well can coastal populations deal with a 1-meter rise in sea levels by the end of the century? We'll have to see.

Microsoft will buy RIM (Blackberry)

Probability: 70%

Timeline: 5 years

Ok, this is a pretty bold prediction, but one that has been discussed a lot.

Google and Apple have been eating away at RIM's (or "Blackberry" as most people know them) market share slowly but surely.

Microsoft, meanwhile, knows that the future is all about mobile, but has failed over and over again in this realm.

Have a look at the graph here: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/07/08/latest-comscore-data-android-market-exploding/

So the great MBA logic here will be to combine the two, and take advantage of "synergies."

It sort of makes sense, considering there is a huge link between RIM and Microsoft. They are both very "corporate" and their products are often maintained by the same IT department.

Bonus prediction: Synergies aside, the merger will slow down and hurt both companies, and their market share will fall even faster.

Nationalism decreases

Probability: 51%

Timeline: 50 years

This is a tough one, so I can only really give it slightly better than a 50/50 chance. So the astute among you may have realized this isn't really a very good prediction at all. More of just a comment.

Overall, the world's population has become a bit more "mixed up" as people move around. And people tend to acclimate to a country's culture given enough time.

There are a number of people that consider themselves "citizens of the world" and aren't overly nationalist.

But there are far more people that get extremely fired up about their patriotism. Enough to be violent about it.

Hopefully the "us versus them" mentality will subside as society progresses, but at current, it's still really just a hope.