Wednesday, July 28, 2010

No more bananas

Probability: 70%

Timeline: 25 years

I love bananas. They are the perfect food.

Sweet and delicious, they have natural packaging and a visual ripeness indicator.

I'm eating as many bananas as I can get my hands on, because they're cheap and plentiful.

The problem is that I don't think they will be for much longer.

I suspect that a combination of political problems, environmental pressures, and transportation cost increases will make these treats more difficult to obtain in the future.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Sea level rise has big effects

Probability: 90%

Timeline: 25 years

This one seems to be a no-brainer. Just quickly reading the Wikipedia entry about sea level rise show this to be very likely.

The real questions to consider at this point are:

  1. How fast will it happen?
  2. What areas will be impacted the most?
Certainly low-lying island nations are most at risk. In fact, large parts of Tuvalu have already been evacuated and the entire country may eventually have to be abandoned!

How well can coastal populations deal with a 1-meter rise in sea levels by the end of the century? We'll have to see.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Microsoft will buy RIM (Blackberry)

Probability: 70%

Timeline: 5 years

Ok, this is a pretty bold prediction, but one that has been discussed a lot.

Google and Apple have been eating away at RIM's (or "Blackberry" as most people know them) market share slowly but surely.

Microsoft, meanwhile, knows that the future is all about mobile, but has failed over and over again in this realm.

Have a look at the graph here:

So the great MBA logic here will be to combine the two, and take advantage of "synergies."

It sort of makes sense, considering there is a huge link between RIM and Microsoft. They are both very "corporate" and their products are often maintained by the same IT department.

Bonus prediction: Synergies aside, the merger will slow down and hurt both companies, and their market share will fall even faster.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Nationalism decreases

Probability: 51%

Timeline: 50 years

This is a tough one, so I can only really give it slightly better than a 50/50 chance. So the astute among you may have realized this isn't really a very good prediction at all. More of just a comment.

Overall, the world's population has become a bit more "mixed up" as people move around. And people tend to acclimate to a country's culture given enough time.

There are a number of people that consider themselves "citizens of the world" and aren't overly nationalist.

But there are far more people that get extremely fired up about their patriotism. Enough to be violent about it.

Hopefully the "us versus them" mentality will subside as society progresses, but at current, it's still really just a hope.