Google becomes Microsoft

Probability: 70%

Timeline: 5 years

Google has been one of my favorite companies for a long time, but lately they seem to be losing their edge.

Google Apps started out as an amazing new business platform, hosted "in the cloud" with many features that couldn't be done with traditional office applications (ie. Microsoft Office).

Lately, however, the Apps team(s) seem to be trying to copy Microsoft's features one by one.

They're trying to duplicate VBScript (Apps Script) and Visual Basic (GWT). They're trying to match Office feature by feature.

This is the same path that Microsoft used with WordPerfect and Lotus 1-2-3. It did eventually lead to their dominance (because they owned the operating system) but Word and Excel aren't really much more innovative than their ancestors.

I don't think this is a great strategy, because the web/browser environment lends itself to something that could be much better and much more powerful.

I'm guessing they have long lists of companies that claim they will switch "as soon as they have features A, B, and C" but they might be missing the point.

To avoid this fate, they really need to clean house, and refocus on a large scale.

Otherwise, we will have to wait for "Company X" to emerge and start challenging the new "corporatized" Google...

Microsoft will buy RIM (Blackberry)

Probability: 70%

Timeline: 5 years

Ok, this is a pretty bold prediction, but one that has been discussed a lot.

Google and Apple have been eating away at RIM's (or "Blackberry" as most people know them) market share slowly but surely.

Microsoft, meanwhile, knows that the future is all about mobile, but has failed over and over again in this realm.

Have a look at the graph here: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/07/08/latest-comscore-data-android-market-exploding/

So the great MBA logic here will be to combine the two, and take advantage of "synergies."

It sort of makes sense, considering there is a huge link between RIM and Microsoft. They are both very "corporate" and their products are often maintained by the same IT department.

Bonus prediction: Synergies aside, the merger will slow down and hurt both companies, and their market share will fall even faster.